The Application of Modern Portfolio Theory to Hedging in the Dry Bulk Shipping Markets

Merged with duplicate record 10026.1/786 on 07.20.2017 by CS (TIS)Risk and uncertainty have a vital impact on any business, but are particularly influential in the shipping industry. Although risk and uncertainty constitute the life-blood that courses through the veins of business, decision makers typically attempt to reduce the risks to which their decisions are subject. This is because there inevitably exists a level of risk which the decision maker is unwilling to accept. In May 1985 a new method of risk reduction in shipping became available through the introduction of BIFFEX — the Baltic International Freight Futures Exchange. Participants in shipping can now hedge against their risks in the physical market by taking a position on the new futures market. This adds a new dimension to the situation as it existed before the introduction of BIFFEX , when the hedging of market risk was undertaken solely by holding alternative forms of physical contract. Typically, decision makers in shipping have formulated hedging strategies on the basis of ad hoc, inconsistent and subjectively judgemental criteria. This work is concerned with the optimization of the risk reduction process by integrating the different forms of market investment in a portfolio context. The methodology used is based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). This provides a formal structure for the deduction of a subjectively optimal portfolio, in the sense that it yields the 'best' risk/return trade-off in line with a decision maker's own attitude to risk. Previously. MPT has been applied solely to the determination of optimum portfolios of stocks and shares. The theory is, therefore, refined in accordance with the requirements of shipping. Similarly, the theory has previously only been applied to investors who are ‘risk averse'. In this work, it is expanded to include those investors who are 'risk prone' or 'risk neutral'. The objective of the thesis is thus the successful implementation of M P T to allow the deduction of a subjectively optimal portfolio of shipping market investments.Galbrsuths Liinited, E.D. & F. Mann (Shipp'ing) Limited, Lyle Shipping Limited, Simpson. Spence & Young Limited and City of London Polytechni

Evaluating the external costs of a modal shift from rail to sea

This study analyzes the comparative level of social and external costs if an existing transport chain is replaced by one that includes a greater use of shipping. The main objective of the paper is to assess, on the basis of changes in social and external cost, the potential effectiveness of policies which aim to promote a modal shift to shipping. The social and external costs of both options are evaluated, therefore, using both Sweden’s national guidelines for cost-benefit analysis and the European guidelines. A secondary objective of the paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of outcomes to the methodology applied and the input values employed, as well as to identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of these two CBA methodologies when applied to choices involving a shipping mode, The paper concludes that evaluation outcomes are highly sensitive to the choice of CBA methodology and the input values embedded therein. In addition, a number of shortcomings with the guidelines are identified, the most important of which are the need to: (1) have specific values for air pollution from ships; (2) incorporate a system for continuous updates of emission factors, given that vessel speeds vary over time and; (3) incorporate values for water pollution and its effects on the coast and sea bottom. For the Swedish guidelines specifically, there is a need to encompass a value for the scarcity of rail capacity

Exploring the relationships between maritime connectivity, international trade and domestic production

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Identifying the Main Opportunities and Challenges from the Implementation of a Port Energy Management System: A SWOT/PESTLE Analysis

Climate change is among the greatest environmental threats facing the globe today and the abatement of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is concerning all the industrial sectors contributing to the problem. The maritime transport sector has already implemented several measures for energy efficiency for the reduction of its GHG emissions, including both vessels and ports. This paper focuses on the prospects and challenges facing the development of a port energy management system. It analyzes the main factors which exert an impact on such a plan and that need to be taken into account for its successful implementation. A SWOT/PESTLE analysis is utilized for the identification of the political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental factors that have a positive or negative effect on the adoption and successful implementation of a port energy management system. This analysis is based on empirical data from two leading North-European port authorities. Given the fact that ports are currently focusing on the reduction of their energy consumption, this paper&rsquo s results have particular significance in that they could enlighten and inform the adoption of a port energy management plan within ports. Document type: Articl

The impact of immediate breast reconstruction on the time to delivery of adjuvant therapy: the iBRA-2 study

Background: Immediate breast reconstruction (IBR) is routinely offered to improve quality-of-life for women requiring mastectomy, but there are concerns that more complex surgery may delay adjuvant oncological treatments and compromise long-term outcomes. High-quality evidence is lacking. The iBRA-2 study aimed to investigate the impact of IBR on time to adjuvant therapy. Methods: Consecutive women undergoing mastectomy ± IBR for breast cancer July–December, 2016 were included. Patient demographics, operative, oncological and complication data were collected. Time from last definitive cancer surgery to first adjuvant treatment for patients undergoing mastectomy ± IBR were compared and risk factors associated with delays explored. Results: A total of 2540 patients were recruited from 76 centres; 1008 (39.7%) underwent IBR (implant-only [n = 675, 26.6%]; pedicled flaps [n = 105,4.1%] and free-flaps [n = 228, 8.9%]). Complications requiring re-admission or re-operation were significantly more common in patients undergoing IBR than those receiving mastectomy. Adjuvant chemotherapy or radiotherapy was required by 1235 (48.6%) patients. No clinically significant differences were seen in time to adjuvant therapy between patient groups but major complications irrespective of surgery received were significantly associated with treatment delays. Conclusions: IBR does not result in clinically significant delays to adjuvant therapy, but post-operative complications are associated with treatment delays. Strategies to minimise complications, including careful patient selection, are required to improve outcomes for patients

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Atmospheric emissions from shipping: the need for regulation and approaches to compliance

Shipping has traditionally been viewed as the least environmentally damaging mode of freight transport. Recent studies have increasingly questioned this perception, as attention has focused on both the greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2) and the emission of health-damaging pollutants (such as sulphur, nitrogen oxides and particulates) by ships. This paper reviews the available evidence on the atmospheric emissions of shipping. It proposes that the profit objective has prompted the pursuit of greater fuel efficiency within the sector, but that reliance on market forces alone is insufficient to deliver on the environmental imperative. The paper outlines the current and planned regulatory regime for the atmospheric emissions from ships and posits that greater, and more diverse, market regulation is required. Alternative general approaches to regulatory compliance are categorised as ‘alternative sources of energy’ or ‘abatement technologies’ and the characteristics of a range of specific options are analysed. The paper concludes that although the shipping industry has been slow to improve its environmental credentials, a combination of regulation and technological innovation provides it with significant potential to dramatically reduce its environmental impact

ATTITUDES TOWARDS TRAFFIC PROBLEMS AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN THE DARTMOOR AND LAKE DISTRICT NATIONAL PARKS.

Problems associated with traffic demand have received only scant attention in the rural context and, although accepted as a viable approach to ameliorating urban traffic problems, traffic demand management has only recently been adopted by rural policy makers. In the national parks, where traffic-related problems are particularly acute, most traffic management measures are of the ‘carrot’ varity where attempts are made to persuabe private car passengers to use public transport transpon mobes, their success depends on tne attitudes of private car users towards public transport alternatives and their perceptions of the presence scale and impact of traffic-related problems. By analysing surveys of 768 drivers hr the Entamoor and Lake District National Parks, the potential success of ‘carrot’ measures is assessed and the implications for future policy addressed